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Oil in Global Economy Series: OPEC March deal compliance review

In November 2016, when OPEC members agreed to cut production for the first time since the Great Recession, it was welcomed with great optimism and oil price jumped more than 20 percent, from $45 per barrel to as high as $55 per barrel (WTI). However, that optimism faded amid higher production from the United States and reports of impatience within the OPEC with lower oil price. Even a fresh agreement in May, between the OPEC and participating non-OPEC producers, failed to lift price.

However, as OPEC continues with its targeted production agreement, the oil has slowly turned from bearish to bullish on Middle East tension and as the market nears rebalancing. In this article, we review the compliance among OPEC members based on April OPEC monthly oil market report.

WTI is currently trading at $66.2 per barrel and Brent at $5.2 per barrel premium to WTI.

 

Target as per OPEC deal
 (million barrel per day)

February production
 (million barrel per day)

 

March production
 (million barrel per day)

Algeria

1.039

1.033

 

0.984

Angola

1.673

1.606

 

1.524

Ecuador

0.522

0.516

 

0.518

Gabon

0.193

0.192

 

0.183

Iran

3.797

3.81

 

3.814

Iraq

4.351

4.44

 

4.426

Kuwait

2.707

2.702

 

2.704

Qatar

0.618

0.590

 

0.606

Saudi Arabia

10.058

9.981

 

9.934

UAE

2.874

2.820

 

2.864

Venezuela

1.972

1.543

 

1.488

total

29.804

29.231

 

29.045

 

  • According to data from secondary resources, the OPEC remains more than compliant with the agreement on an average production basis.
  • It is important to note that overall production from OPEC including the exempted members like Nigeria, and Libya declined by 186,000 barrels per day In March compared to February.
  • Venezuela saw a sharp drop in production to 1.448 million barrels per day.
  • Libya and Nigeria produced 0.968 and 1.81 million barrels per day in March, respectively.
  • Market Data
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