Two countries, Libya and Nigeria have been exempted from the OPEC oil deal, which would see the production from the cartel decline by 1.2 million barrels per day beginning this month. So, it is important to watch the production level of these two countries. Both have been a major producer in the past and currently suffering from internal conflicts and terrorism.

News from Libya has hit the wires in late December that the country’s major oil field could come back online after staying off for past two years. A pipeline connecting the Sahara oil field in Western Libya has been reactivated. If true, then the pipeline could add 270,000 barrels per day to Libya’s production over the next three months. The field was largely shuttered by rebels since 2014. In addition to that, a nearby oil field (El-feel), which was also taken down by rebels are likely to have come back online and it would add another 90,000 barrels to the country’s production.

However, in the past, there have been several restart attempts that finally failed to materialize, but if successful such an increase would some way undermine the recent OPEC deal.