Norwegian retail sales rise below expectations in September

Norwegian retail sales rose 0.3 percent sequentially in the month of September, following a drop of 4.9 percent in the prior month. The fall was part of a correction from high sales level seen early in the summer and the level is still high compared to the beginning of the year. Consensus expectations were for the retail sales to rise 1.2 percent.

The average sales level in the period May to July was 11.7 percent above the average from the second half in 2019. Therefore, a downward adjustment was likely sometime this autumn, said DNB Markets in a research report. This was one reason for expecting further fall in September. The sales in September were 8.2 percent above the level in February. There is still a way to go before sales are normalized. Nevertheless, purchases abroad have shifted to domestic purchases.

“This will contribute to a higher normal level of retail sales. Norges Bank forecast private consumption to fall by 7.5 percent in 2020 and rise by 7.7 percent in 2021 but there is high uncertainty about the development. Today’s figures will not lead to new signals from Norges Bank”, added DNB Markets.