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No hike expectations finally takes down US Dollar

Dollar is again taking some beating against its most traded ccys and also against some of the emerging market peers, as Dollar bulls finally woken up to the bond market pricing of no hike in 2016.

Bond market was moving well ahead of FX punters in readjusting their expectations in wake of further volatility, even after Bank of Japan (BOJ) introduced new stimulus with introduction of negative rates. According to latest bond market pricing - with more than 50% probability that there would be no hikes in 2016 and with only 33% probability that there could be just one hike, compared FED's dotplot showing four.

Probabilities for September meeting are -

  • 63% probability that rates will remain same, 32% probability that it will be higher by 25 basis points and only 5% probability that rates will be higher by 50 basis points.

Yesterday US Dollar registered its 16th biggest single day drop in last 10 years of 1.6%. Biggest was on 18th March 2009, when Dollar index dropped by 2.69%.

To add to that comments from FED's Bill Dudley posed doubts over hikes last night. Weak ISM also helped the move.

Dollar index is currently trading at 97.1, down -0.21% for the day.

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