New Zealand bonds gain at close after uncertainty hovers post-election results

The New Zealand bonds gained at the time of closing Monday after investors poured into safe-haven instruments, following the country’s inconclusive results of its general election held over the weekend.

At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, slipped 1/2 basis point to 3.01 percent, the yield on 7-year note also fell 1/2 basis point to 2.87 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year too ended 1/2 basis point lower at 2.15 percent.

As expected, New Zealand’s general election delivered no clear outcome – neither the centre-right bloc (National and ACT) nor the centre-left bloc (Labour and Green) has the numbers to form a government. This leaves the centrist and nationalist New Zealand First Party in a monarch-maker position. However, we think that the results make a National / New Zealand First Government the more likely outcome.

National’s election day tally this year would translate to 58 seats in a Parliament of 120. Based on historical trends, political analysts have suggested that this could drop to 56 seats after special votes are counted, while Labour and the Greens could gain two seats between them. However, even a two-seat swing would not change the fundamental features of the result – NZ First would still hold the balance of power.

"We expect the NZD will remain weighed down by uncertainty until a government is formed. If a National / NZ First government emerges, as discussed in the sections above, then the NZD would probably rise a little on the passing of uncertainty. Beyond that, the medium term implications appear NZD-neutral, so long as the market is satisfied about the durability of the Government," Westpac Research commented in its latest report.

Meanwhile, the NZX 50 index jumped 0.70 percent to 7,869.77, while at 06:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Strength Index remained neutral at -56.71 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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