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New Zealand bonds close nearly flat ahead of CPI data, RBNZ economic assessment report

The New Zealand 10-year bond yield ended nearly flat as investors await second quarter consumer inflation data and RBNZ brief update on the economic outlook. The yield on benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price hovered around 2.355 percent mark, the yield on 7-year note remained flat at 2.105 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note ended 1 basis point lower at 2.020 percent.

On Thursday the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by announcing that it will issue an economic update on July 21, which comes way before the upcoming monetary policy meeting on August 11.

We foresee that the RBNZ will go for further rate cuts to counter deflationary pressure if inflation fails to revive, which is way below the target range of the central bank.

Moreover, the Bank of England also surprised markets by keeping its official bank rate unchanged at 0.5 percent, despite Governor Mark Carney’s earlier announcement of his intention to inject monetary stimulus due to rising market turmoil after the UK left the European Union last month.

The accompanying minutes show an eight to one vote in favour of keeping policy unchanged this month, with arguably the most dovish member of the MPC, Gertjan Vlieghe, preferring to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points immediately, to 0.25 percent. The minutes, however, state explicitly that most members expect monetary policy to be loosened in August.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand’s benchmark S&P/NZX50 Index closed down 7.45 points to 7,072.88.

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