New Zealand Q4 GDP likely to rise 0.6 pct, current account deficit to widen slightly: Westpac Research

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 is expected to rise 0.6 percent, compared to an average growth rate of 0.8 percent over the previous three quarters of 2017. For the year as a whole, the growth rate is expected to slow to 2.9 percent, compared to a peak of 4 percent growth in 2016, according to a recent report from Westpac Research.

Further, the country’s December quarter national accounts are expected to highlight the slowing in the New Zealand economy’s momentum over the last year. The current account deficit is expected to widen slightly, but it remains well within the range of what would be considered sustainable.

With population growth still running strong at about 0.5 percent a quarter, this would mark the second quarter when growth has been barely above zero in per capita terms. The current account deficit (Wednesday, March 14) is expected to remain well contained despite a surge in imports over the quarter.

There are no obvious one-off factors driving the quarterly result, just modest growth across a range of sectors. Goods turnover was relatively brisk in the December quarter, with some of the strongest gains seen in the retail, wholesale and transport sectors. However, growth in services was more subdued.

"Our GDP forecast appears to be on the lower side of the market, though we haven’t seen the full range of forecasts yet. The Reserve Bank forecast a 0.7 percent rise in its February Monetary Policy Statement. A result in line with our forecast would bring the market closer towards our view that the OCR is unlikely to be raised before late 2019," the report added.

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