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NBP likely to keep official rates unchanged in 2017 on expectations of gradual rise in inflation

The National bank of Poland (NBP) is expected to keep official rates on hold through the next year, following expectations of a gradual rise in the rate of consumer inflation. Moreover, the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting further confirmed that policy makers remain contended with the current policy stance and would wait to watch the next inflation reading.

In contrast to the above argument, majority of the MPC board members still consider lower interest rates benefiting the economy, as uncertain as it could have negative impact on financial stability which may outweigh rather small positive influence of lower rates on real economy.

Further, most central banks are awaiting the monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve on December 14, for further signals in the market and then decide on the possible trajectory.

Although the last MPC meeting was held prior to the release of significant economic data, like, Q3 gross domestic product, October industrial sales, etc., the market is pricing for no more easing from the NBP in due course of time.

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