NBP likely to cut rates by 50bps in 2017, says Commerzbank

The National Bank of Poland is expected to slash its benchmark interest rate by about 50 basis points in the year to come in 2017, in a deliberate attempt to spur the country’s consumer inflation.

Core inflation for October came in as expected at -0.2 percent y/y. Following CPI breakdown published on Monday, the market consensus had correctly estimated this core inflation reading, hence there was no new information.

In terms of trend, core inflation has got slightly less negative all right, but at this pace, it will take years to even reach the CB's lower inflation bound of 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, GDP growth is tanking. Hence, while headline deflation may reverse into positive over the next quarter, core inflation will likely stay negative, Commerzbank reported.