Minor changes in Poland's price outlook

Deflation in October of -0.7% is expected, in line with the market consensus and slightly above the flash CPI estimate (-0.8% yoy). The downside risk may come from lower-than-expected growth in food prices and in transport prices (- 1.5% mom). We had observed another decrease in prices at gas stations (fuel prices down 2.4% mom). 

A seasonal increase in clothing and footwear prices (3.4% mom) due to new winter collections is also likely. On a yearly basis, transport prices still deduct around 0.95pp from the figure and remain the main deflationary factor. The CPI is set to turn positive in Q1'16.