Mexico likely to post growth rate around 2.2% y/y in 2015

In the year to date, Mexico's industrial production has decreased 0.5%, dragged down by a contraction of 4.9% in oil and gas production and a 1.7% decrease in construction activities. Whereas, manufacturing has grown 1.3%, driven by a strong expansion in transport equipment (auto) of 3.7%. 

"After the May report, we estimate that the GDP monthly proxy for May will contract by 0.5% m/m sa, setting our GDP tracker for Q2 at 0.4% q/q sa, below our current forecast (0.9%). We may review our forecast after the release of GDP data for May, due on July 24, and the IP report for June. If the expansion in Q2 is closer to our tracker, growth in 2015 could be closer to 2.2% y/y, which again would be a third consecutive disappointment on annual GDP growth and could spur doubts about the current potential growth of the economy, which we still believe is at 2.6% y/y", according to Barclays.