Mexican manufacturing growth expected to improve in H2, but uncertainty has risen lately

Societe Generale notes:

We remain hopeful of a bounce back in H2 and are still somewhat hopeful of decent Q2 growth also given the strength of the domestic consumption demand (as seen in retail sales numbers) so far this year. Exports and investment remain crucial to manufacturing growth and the near-term growth acceleration. With the US economy expected to improve in H2, we remain confident we will see an acceleration in trade-led growth in Mexico. However, as our US economists believe, US consumption momentum going into Q3 will not be as strong as previously expected and the choppiness in Q2 adds to the uncertainty. This could affect Mexico's growth outlook too.