Mexican economy should continue to perform well in Q1 15: Barclays

Quotes from Barclays Capital:

- The Mexican economy grew 0.7% q/q sa in Q4 14, pushed by the services and industrial sectors, which expanded 0.9 and 0.6%, respectively, partially offset by a contraction in primary activities (-1.1%). In annual terms, the economy grew 2.6% this past quarter.

- This report implies that the economy grew 2.1% y/y in 2014, in line with our forecast. Nevertheless, it puts some downward pressure to our 2015 forecast, since the Q4 14 expansion was slightly smaller than expected. However, we maintain our 3.3% y/y forecast for 2015, waiting to observe the performance of the industrial sector in January.

- The economy should continue to perform well in Q1 15. We expect 0.8% q/q sa (3.3% saar) growth for that quarter, although the decline in oil production and prices set some limited downside risks. In any case, these forecasts are consistent with a persistent continuation of slack in the economy, reducing the probability of observing pressures on the inflation front.