Trump Administration Expands Global Gag Rule, Restricting U.S. Foreign Aid to Diversity and Gender Programs 
Panama Supreme Court Voids CK Hutchison Port Concessions, Raising Geopolitical and Trade Concerns 
U.S. and El Salvador Sign Landmark Critical Minerals Agreement to Boost Investment and Trade 
Trump to Announce New Federal Reserve Chair Pick as Powell Replacement Looms 
South Korea Industry Minister Heads to Washington Amid U.S. Tariff Hike Concerns 
Canadian PM Mark Carney Urges U.S. to Respect Sovereignty Amid Alberta Separatism Reports 
Trump Warns UK and Canada Against Deepening Business Ties With China 
U.S. Eases Venezuela Oil Sanctions to Boost American Investment After Maduro Ouster 
Syria-Kurdish Ceasefire Marks Historic Step Toward National Unity 
UN Chief Warns Against U.S.-China Power Rivalry, Calls for Multipolar World Order 
Trump Warns Minneapolis Mayor as Immigration Raids Continue Amid Rising Tensions 
Faith Leaders Arrested on Capitol Hill During Protest Against Trump Immigration Policies and ICE Funding 
Trump Administration Signals Shift as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth Skips NATO Meeting Again 
U.S. Government Faces Brief Shutdown as Congress Delays Funding Deal 
Venezuela Proposes Amnesty Law and Plans to Transform Helicoide Prison 
Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on Canadian Aircraft Amid Escalating U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute 
China Reconsiders Pressure on Japan as Prime Minister Takaichi Seeks Strong Election Mandate 
As of July 12, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris has overtaken President Joe Biden in PredictIt’s 2024 general election market, priced at $0.23 compared to Biden’s $0.21. Former President Donald Trump remains the market leader at $0.62.
Donald Trump Leads PredictIt Market for 2024 Election; Harris Surpasses Biden in Democratic Race
As of July 12, 2024, the PredictIt market is a fascinating landscape of uncertainty. Former President Donald Trump (R) is currently priced at $0.62, Vice President Kamala Harris at $0.23, and President Joe Biden (D) at $0.21 in the 2024 presidential general election market.
According to Ballotpedia News, since May 16, 2024, Trump has maintained his position as the market leader, but the share prices of other candidates are close behind, with no other candidate exceeding $0.10. The market's assessment of the likelihood of an event occurring is approximately reflected in the share price, which fluctuates by market demand.
Biden is currently dominating the Democratic presidential primary market at $0.43, with Harris following at $0.38. No other candidate has a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
Trump is currently the undisputed leader in the Republican presidential primary market, with a commanding share price of $0.94. No other candidate comes close, with a share price equal to or greater than $0.10.
PredictIt Faces Uncertain Future Amid CFTC Rule Proposal to Ban Election Wagering Markets
PredictIt, a pioneering online political futures market, is a powerful tool for understanding the outcome of elections. Users purchase shares based on the outcome of political events using real money. Several contracts are associated with each event, such as an election, each corresponding to a distinct result. Services like PredictIt can provide invaluable insight into the outcome of elections.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted 3-2 on May 10, 2024, to issue a rule proposal that could potentially prohibit election wagering markets, according to Reuters. The commission declared its intention to revoke PredictIt's no-action letter on August 4, 2022, with an effective date of February 2023. PredictIt announced on its website that it would cease trading on February 15, 2023, unless the CFTC's policy is altered. In March 2023, the CFTC overturned this decision, enabling the platform to operate legally.
