Jobless rate in Mexico likely to have edged up a bit in June

Mexico’s jobless rate is expected to have slightly edged up in June. Last year, the nation recorded higher jobless rate than at the end of 2014. However, with the labor market data’s volatility, the average jobless rate of 4.35 percent for last year was lower than that of 2014’s average rate of 4.38 percent.

This is in line with the Mexican economy expanding close to the trend rate. The seasonally adjusted unemployment series dropped to 3.92 percent in April from March’s 4.17 percent. It was 0.5 percentage points lower on a year-on-year basis. The series moderately rose again to 4 percent in May.

With the present rate of hiring and manufacturing growth, the jobless rate is expected to remain close to current levels in June at 4.06 percent and seasonally adjusted at 4.07 percent, said Societe Generale in a research report. However, the broad trend continues to be that of a slight improvement.

The likelihood of subdued growth might adversely impact the chances of continued recovery in the labor market in the medium term, according to Societe Generale.