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JGBs marginally lower despite continued weak consumer inflation; Yellen’s speech in focus

The Japanese government bonds traded marginally lower Friday despite recent consumer inflation that fell for the fifth straight month in a row, heightening monetary pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease interest rate in September’s monetary policy meeting.

However, markets are likely to maintain recent range in the lead up to Fed Chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1 basis point to -0.073 percent, the super-long 30-year JGB yield also jumped 1 basis point to 0.348 percent and the short-term 2-year JGB yield climbed ½ basis point to -0.179 percent by 07:00 GMT.

Japan's core consumer prices fell 0.5 percent in July from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, that compares with economists' median estimate for a 0.4 percent annual fall, which is well below the central bank’s target band.

Further, the so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States rose 0.3 percent in the year to July. Core consumer prices in Tokyo, available a month before the nationwide data, fell 0.4 percent in August from a year earlier, versus a 0.3 percent annual fall seen by analysts in a Reuters poll.

In addition, consumer prices excluding fresh food, the Bank of Japan’s core gauge, dropped 0.5 percent in July from a year earlier, compared to an estimate of -0.4 percent.

According to recent Reuters poll, 60 percent of economists see the Bank of Japan easing in September; 40 percent see them stay unchanged. Pollsters are split on possible policy action and over 50 percent said the BoJ will adopt more flexible wording on inflation targeting.

Meanwhile, the benchmark Nikkei 225 closed down 1.18 percent at 16,360.71 and the broader Topix index also closed 1.26 percent lower to 1,287.90 points.

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