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Investment banks cut oil forecast as oil dips below $30/barrel

As North American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped below $30/barrel last night, for first time in 12 years, analysts and investment banks rushed to cut their forecast for the year. It hasn't been two weeks to this year yet and oil price has wiped out almost a fifth of its value and down 70% from 2014 summer.

While everyone is aware of supply imbalance in the market, hardly anyone knows, how low will it go. Goldman Sachs has long been calling for $20/barrel oil going ahead. Standard Chartered has now called for as low as $10/barrel oil. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) last year forecasted as low as $5 per barrel.

Several others central banks have cut their forecast drastically for this year.

  • Barclays has cut its Brent crude forecast for the year to $37/barrel from previous $60/barrel and for WTI to $37/barrel from previous $56/barrel.
  • Societe Generale has cut its forecast to $42.5/barrel from $53.75/barrel for Brent and $40.5/barrel from $49.75/barrel for WTI.
  • Macquarie has cut forecast for Brent by $13 to $45/barrel and $11 for WTI to $42/barrel.
  • Bank of America is less bearish compared o others. It just cut its Brent forecast by $4/barrel to $46/barrel and $3 for WTI to $45/barrel.

Brent is currently trading at $31.1/barrel at 30 cents premium to WTI.

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