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Indonesian GDP, worst since 2008/09 crisis
Indonesia registered slowest pace of growth since the financial crisis, despite besting forecast and previous quarter.
December quarter turned out brighter, with 5.04% y/y growth while economists were expecting around 4.8%. But that didn't help annual growth much. In 2015, economy grew only by 4.79%, lowest since 4.63% registered in 2009 and lower than 5.02% seen in 2015. Despite being large oil producer, Indonesian economy was able to withstand as it has turned into net oil importer.
On quarterly basis, GDP, however contracted by 1.83%, again a bit better than 1.93% expected contraction. Economists expect, Indonesian GDP growth to stick around 4.5% in first half of 2016 due to slowdown in China.
Even in mid-2015, Indonesia has been suffering from high level of inflation of 7.26%, however thanks to lower commodity prices inflation has now eased to 4.14%, giving room to central banks to cut rates. In January Indonesia's central banks reduced rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. We, expect further rate cuts in 2016.
Issue lies with balance of trade, which has dropped to negative since November. Indonesia's FX reserve has ticked up recently $105.9 billion after falling to $100 billion but further decay is possible is China's Yuan weakens, Large chunk of FX reserve consists of Chinese currency.
Indonesian Rupiah is currently trading at 13590 per Dollar, down more than 7% in last 12 months but this year it has edged up by 1.4% against Dollar so far.