Indian's trade deficit may have widened on increased gold imports

India's gold imports had been deferred as the market expected a reduction in gold import duties in the February union budget. Theunchanged import duties and festival-related gold demand caused gold imports to spike. 

"We expect the March trade deficit to have widened to USD 7.5bn from USD 6.8bn in February owing to the sharp increase in gold imports, which likely more than doubled to USD 4.5bn on pent-up demand", says Standard Chartered 

Other imports were likely contained as global commodity prices remained benign. 

"We expect exports to have contracted for a fourth consecutive month, falling c.16% y/y, although they likely increased m/m", added Standard Chartered.