The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to meet November 30 in Vienna to allocate output quotas after agreeing on the framework of a deal back in September. Most analysts expect some form of a production cut. However, it is uncertain whether this will be enough to prop up a market.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) director general Fatih Birol said that an OPEC output cut agreement likely to be reached next week, could send oil prices higher to US$60 a barrel and trigger a jump in global output, particularly from US shale producers.

Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum on Thursday expressed concern about the outer forces which the cartel cannot control. Kachikwu said an OPEC deal to curb oil supply may only push up prices by a couple of dollars. Kachikwu said oil may rise only slightly above $50 a barrel if a consensus is reached, and could fall as low as $44 without a deal.

Oil prices may find support in the short term outlook, but price gains will likely be capped in the medium term by expectations of a renewed rise in oil production in the U.S. Resulting rally in oil prices may give U.S. producers incentive to ramp up output once again.