Hong Kong – Still too early to confirm an export recovery

Hong Kong will announce its April external trade numbers on 28 May. Export growth is likely to come in at 4.5% y/y, up from -1.8% prior, mainly on a favourable base effect, says Standard Chartered. With China's trade data over the same period still weak and its economy yet to stabilise, analysts see a risk of Hong Kong export growth staying soft through Q2-2015 at least, rather than confirming the start of a more sustained recovery.

Signs of a recovery is expected only in Q3 at the earliest, when US growth reaccelerates and China bottoms out. Hong Kong's April import growth to come in at 0.5% y/y, reflecting recent weak retail sentiment due to the structural shift in mainland tourist spending and elevated social tensions between the countries, estimates Standard Chartered.