Higher Brent price due to contract rollover

Brent is beginning trading today a good one dollar higher than yesterday at just shy of $48 per barrel. The "price rise" is due largely to the contract rollover, as oil is trading in a pronounced contango at the short end of the forward curve. 

The market had been anticipating an inventory build, as refineries scale back their processing during the usual autumn maintenance period, with the result that crude oil stocks generally rise. 

Excessive weight should never be attached to a weekly fluctuation, however, as it can often be explained by somewhat erratic imports. Nonetheless, the now significant decline in US production should help reduce the oversupply in the US and thus "brighten" the fundamental situation, says Commerzbank.