Greece referendum on 5 July

It seems very likely that the Greece referendum will go ahead on Sunday, 5 July.

It would remove the apparent paradox that the Greek population supports the Syriza government's negotiation strategy while at the same time supporting continued membership in the euro area. 

German Chancellor Merkel publicly stated that there would be no further negotiations until after the referendum. Furthermore, the European institutions are explicitly supporting a 'YES' vote and have made it clear that a 'NO' vote equals an EMU exit. 

With no fundamental change in the institutions' offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a 'NO' vote, as he announced last Friday. This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a 'YES' vote. 

The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras's future. Hence, a 'YES' vote would free the path for snap elections or a 'national unity government'.