Greece capital controls now seem likely

It seems unlikely that Greece can escape capital controls. Once in place, these will take time to lift; in the case of Cyprus, it took two years.

Even under what currently seems the more likely outcome of a vote to "accept" the bailout terms. A vote to "accept" the bailout programme would be a vote against the position recommended by the Greek government.

In light of the comments from the Eurogroup President (cf. above) it seems likely that finding agreement with a government that recommended a negative vote in the referendum will be politically challenging, to say the least.

The Eurogroup would require very strong reassurances to proceed with an agreement in such a scenario. An attempt to agree a new third economic adjustment programme for Greece would not be made. 

It will not be an overnight process, however. Moreover, it would be politically very challenging for Germany to accept a package that does not involve the IMF. Given the timelines involved, it seems likely that Greece will not only default on the IMF end-June, but also on the ECB on 20 July.