Greece Q2 15 GDP, more of a temporary rebound

Greek real GDP surprisingly rose by 0.8% q/q in Q2 against expectations of a fall. Furthermore, the previous two quarters have been revised up 0.2pp, implying that Q1 15 GDP was flat and Q4 14 only fell by 0.2% q/q. 

While no details are available at this stage, it is gathered that private consumption may have been boosted by possible pre-emptive consumption behaviour as the expectations of bank account freezes and capital controls increased in May/June. 

"Also, net trade may have supported growth, with imports likely collapsing while exports were more resilient. These offsetting factors are unlikely to be present in Q3 and to some extent in Q4, as the imposition of capital controls in early July has affected the capacity of companies to import before exporting", says Barclays. 

Furthermore, very large falls in business confidence in July also suggest a significant loss of momentum. The possible call for general elections in Q4 15 would also work against restoring confidence. 

"Finally, it is worth highlighting that in the meantime, nominal GDP declined by another 0.3% q/q in Q2, consistent with -1.4% y/y. These adverse dynamics remain, notably when it comes to debt-to-GDP ratios", added Barclays.