Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Strait of Hormuz Disruptions

Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price outlook upward for the second time in under two weeks, citing prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and deepening structural vulnerabilities in global energy supply. The bank's more bullish stance reflects mounting uncertainty across crude markets and a reassessment of geopolitical risk.

The investment bank now models Hormuz flows holding at just 5% of normal capacity for six weeks, followed by a gradual month-long recovery. This extended bottleneck, combined with heavily concentrated global production and limited spare capacity, is expected to fundamentally alter market dynamics for months ahead.

Daan Struyven, Goldman's head of oil market research, noted that growing awareness of supply concentration risks is likely to drive structural increases in strategic stockpiling and push long-dated prices higher. He also warned that a growing risk premium would be necessary to moderate demand and provide a hedge against potential supply shortages as uncertainty lingers.

Goldman now forecasts Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March–April, a sharp jump from its previous estimate of $98 and a significant premium over 2025 levels. The bank also raised its full-year 2026 Brent forecast to $85 from $77, with WTI projected at $79, citing deeper inventory drawdowns and a broad repricing of effective spare capacity.

This latest revision follows an earlier upgrade on March 11, when Goldman lifted its Q4 2026 Brent and WTI forecasts to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively. Looking further out, the bank sees Brent averaging $80 in 2027, though it flagged significant upside risk. In a severely adverse scenario involving prolonged Middle East supply disruptions, Brent prices could potentially surpass their 2008 record highs, with the commodity potentially settling near $115 by late 2026.