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Gold Prices Fall as Hot U.S. Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets

Gold Prices Fall as Hot U.S. Inflation Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets. Source: Photo by Michael Steinberg via Pexels

Gold prices moved lower on Monday as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week, while surging oil prices added fresh inflation concerns.

Spot gold traded near $4,340 an ounce after recording its third consecutive weekly decline. Bullion lost 1.8% last week despite finishing Friday higher. XAU/USD fell 0.3% to $4,335.98 an ounce, while gold futures dropped 0.7% to $4,376.92.

Other precious metals also weakened. Silver declined 0.7% to $64.09 an ounce, while platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,792.63. The U.S. Dollar Index edged 0.1% higher to 99.19.

Pressure on gold intensified after August data showed core U.S. consumer prices, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% month over month. Markets are now pricing an approximately 88% probability of a September Fed rate hike, which would be the central bank’s first increase in three years.

Higher interest rates generally create headwinds for gold because the precious metal offers no yield. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, renewed his calls for lower borrowing costs on Sunday, potentially adding political pressure ahead of the Fed decision.

Energy prices are also complicating the inflation outlook. Brent crude approached $107 per barrel after gaining nearly 9% last week as Middle East tensions continued disrupting energy markets. A planned meeting between Iran and several Gulf countries over a temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz was postponed.

Despite near-term rate risks, ANZ remains bullish on the longer-term gold outlook. The bank expects geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs to keep inflation elevated and forecasts three 25-basis-point Fed rate hikes by March 2027.

ANZ maintained its 12-month gold price target of $5,400 an ounce, arguing that geopolitical-driven inflation should preserve demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Recovering gold ETF holdings, stronger speculative positioning and robust institutional demand from China and India are also expected to provide support.

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