Global Geopolitical Series: Key updates from across the world

Here are some key events to keep a tab on,

• Russia-Israel- Syria: After reaching an agreement over Idlib, Turkey is now under pressure to act on it and drive the extremists out of the region. In the latest rise of tensions, Moscow is blaming Israel over its indirect rose in downing a Russian military jet. 
   
• Korean Peninsula: The inter-Korean meeting was a huge success with military chiefs of the two countries signing a cooperation agreement and two countries jointly bidding to host the 2032 summer Olympic. Chairman Kim of North Korea has agreed to take specific steps to denuclearization such as allowing international inspectors to be present during the dismantling of nuclear sites, missile test sites etc. Another meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chairman Kim is being planned for.
   
• Palestine - Israel: After intense firefighting, airstrikes and rocket fires along the Gaza border, Israel was inching closer in forging a truce agreement with Hamas over the Gaza Strip, Palestinian Authority leaders have foiled the move and the focus has now turned to solve the West Bank issue first before any truce along Gaza. As the Palestinian Authority (PA) leaders heightened the harsh rhetoric, President Trump of the United States has called of as much as $200 million aid to PA.  President Trump has also reportedly revived the confederation idea between Jordan and the West Bank, which was initially proposed by King Hussain of Jordan and Yasser Arafat, the PA President. The plan was abandoned by Jordan in 1988. President Trump is also negotiating with Arab leaders to provide citizenships to Palestinian refugees living in their country. Recently, Paraguay, which had said that it would follow the U.S. footsteps in recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital by moving its embassy, scrapped the move, angering Israel which has chosen to close its embassy in Paraguay. According to latest reports, violence has once again erupted across West Bank. Israel is likely to go ahead with its planned but controversial demolition of a Bedouin village as it has given its residents 8 days to clear area earlier this week.  
   
• Turkey-United States: The relations have taken a turn for the worse, as President Trump has imposed sanctions against Turkey's justice and interior ministers due to the detention of an American pastor. In response to the U.S. sanctions, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan ordered the authorities to freeze assets of America’s justice and interior minister. However, it is unclear who that would affect, due to differing Cabinet roles in the United States than in Turkey, or if the U.S. officials even have any holdings in Turkey. President Trump has doubled the metal tariffs on Turkey citing sharp currency declines. And Erdogan responded by increasing tariffs on several U.S. goods including iPhone. Turkey is trying to warm up to Russia, and the European Union amid diplomatic crisis with the United States. In the latest move, defiant Turkey has announced that it would move ahead with the decision to purchase Russian made S400 missile defense systems, despite being a NATO ally to the United States and despite NATO’s opposition. Turkey is now spearheading an effort to forge a global alliance against U.S. economic attacks. However, the crisis continues in Turkey. In the latest move, Turkish President Erdogan has taken control of the country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund and its central bank sold billions of dollars’ worth of gold to improve its liquidity position. Latest reports suggest that Turkey might release the U.S. Pastor soon.
   
• Trade war: President Trump has toughened his trade rhetoric towards China and Canada, after reaching an agreement with Mexico on NAFTA but not with Canada. In the latest move, China and the United States have imposed tariffs on $260 billion bilateral trade, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on $200 billion.
   
• Saudi Arabia- Canada: Saudi Arabia has severed economic and diplomatic ties with Canada in response to Canada’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s handling and capture of activists. Saudi Arabia ordered the expulsion of the Canadian ambassador and the halting of all new trade and investment deals between the two countries after Canada said it was gravely concerned about the recent arrests of Saudi civil society and women’s rights activists. It has also called back its diplomats from Canada. Saudi Arabia has suspended flights to Toronto as the escalation is showing no signs of abating. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week that Canada is engaging diplomatically with Saudi Arabia to resolve the dispute, however, no reports of any breakthrough yet. As the two sides have failed to resolve the dispute, Canada is seeking this week’s UN meeting as yet another opportunity to resolve the issue with the help of others.
   
• Cyprus crisis: New natural gas discoveries have left a divided Cyprus in the middle of a worsening geopolitical storm in the Eastern Mediterranean. Cyprus has once again taken center stage in the geopolitical debates surrounding the Eastern Mediterranean, fueled by vivid discussions of possible new resource wars in the region, and the evolving role of Turkey. Cyprus struck gas, twice: in 2011 and in 2018. The Cyprus peace talks, led by the UN, collapsed dramatically in 2017 and left the international community in a state of pessimism regarding a possible reunification of the island. Turkey decided to play a more assertive role in the regional energy game. The negotiations are still on with no breakthrough yet. Turkey has announced that it might militarily intervene to prevent drilling in the region for Natural gas.
   
• Sweden election: Sweden in political deadlock as elections fail to deliver a decisive majority. The ruling Social Democratic Party won 101 seats in 349 members’ parliament, 12 seats less than the last election, making it the biggest party in numbers of seats won. Moderate Party came second 70 seats, 13 seats less than the last election. Sweden Democrats were the biggest winner of the night with 62 seats, 20 more than the last election. Sweden’s Centre Party won 31 seats, 9 seats more than last year. Sweden’s left won 28 seats, 7 more than the last election. Christian Democratic Party won 23 seats, which 7 more compared to the last showing. Liberals won 19 seats, same as last time, and the Green Party came last with 15 seats, 10 seats less than the last showing.  The current coalition looks like - the ruling party’s coalition has 144 seats. Moderate Party’s alliance coalition has 143 seats, which makes the Sweden Democrats the kingmaker with 62 seats. Prime Minister Stefan Lofven is set to lose the first round in his battle to remain in power as Sweden seats its new parliament this week. The 349-person legislature reconvenes on Monday two weeks after an election First up will be the election of a new speaker and then the premier could face a confidence vote as soon as this week. However, the opposition parties have so far failed to reach a formal deal so far.
   
• U.S. - China: In addition to the trade tensions which has increased the diplomatic friction between the two countries reached new heights as the United States announced sanctions on a Chinese military organization for buying military equipment from Russia. The purchase deal included Russian Su-35 combat aircraft and equipment related to the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The sanction bars the organization’s access to the dollar-based financial system. China summoned U.S. ambassador to announce its opposition in the harshest manner possible.