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German bunds stay neutral after November consumer price inflation remains unchanged; ECB policy decision in focus

The German bunds remained in neutral mode Wednesday after the country’s consumer price-led inflation index (CPI) for the month of November remained unchanged. Also, investors are awaiting the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision, scheduled to be unveiled on December 14.

The German 10-year bond yields, which move inversely to its price, rose 1 basis point to 0.32 percent, the yield on 30-year note surged 1-1/2 basis points to 1.15 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly flat at -0.73 percent by 09:50GMT.

With the German figures having surprised on the downside (with output excluding construction down 1.4 percent m/m) but the French figures having surprised significantly on the upside (e.g. with manufacturing output up 2.7 percent m/m), overall euro area industrial production is expected to have been broadly flat, leaving it still up a little more than 3 percent y/y – somewhat softer than recent business surveys have signalled.

In addition, following yesterday’s relatively firm French payroll numbers, euro area employment figures for Q3 are also due today and should show another quarter of steady jobs growth broadly in line with the average rate of the previous four quarters (0.4 percent q/q).

Further, ahead of the equivalent figures for the euro area due next week, final November CPI figures published in Germany this morning confirmed the flash estimates, which saw the headline rate on the EU measure rise above expectations by 0.3ppt to 1.8 percent y/y, not least due to higher petrol price inflation.

Meanwhile, the German DAX traded 0.09 percent down at 13,171.25 by 09:50 GMT, while at 09:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index remained neutral at -61.22 (higher than +75 represents bullish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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