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German bunds nearly flat in subdued trade; T-note/bund yield spread to move beyond 170bps mark

The German bunds traded nearly flat Monday, succumbing to thin trading activity during a relatively quiet session that witnessed data of little significance. Also, investors now look forward to September manufaturing PMI data for further direction.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around -0.11 percent, the yield on long-term 30-year note remained steady at 0.447 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year bond slid 1/2 basis point to -0.689 percent by 06:40 GMT.

The 10-year bund yields has been ranging between -0.10 percent to -0.11 percent and -0.15 percent to -0.16 percent in recent days, depending on banking-sector-related risk aversion, and that should prevail amidst the associated uncertainty. This situation has seen kept upward pressure on the 10-year U.S. T-note/Bund yield spread, which should start to move sustainably beyond the 170 basis points mark soon.

Also, the 10-year Italian/German yield spread has also varied inversely with risk aversion, ranging between 130 basis points  and 140 basis points, but we'd maintain that the risks are on the side of widening. One reason is Italy's constitutional referendum in early December, and associated political risks that could ensue.

Deutsche Bank AG shares slid to a record in the U.S. as Bloomberg News reported that some hedge funds have reduced their exposure to the company. Fellow German lender Commerzbank AG said last Thursday that it would cut one in five of its employees and suspend dividend payments, which increased market tensions.

Lastly, thin trading volumes were observed as markets remain closed today on account of unification day.

Meanwhile, the German stock index DAX Index closed 1.01 percent higher at 10,511.02 on Friday.

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