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GBP review

Quotes from RBC Capital Markets:

-GBP rallied on comprehensively good labour data. The claimant count was down 38K (exp -25K), headline earnings growth rose 2.1% y/y (exp 1.7%) and LFS unemployment rate ticked down to 2.7% (exp unch at 5.8%). Meanwhile our economists note the minutes were implicitly dovish.

-The vote was 9-0 as expected. However, that disguises a wide spectrum of views. One member now thinks that "the next change in the stance of monetary policy was roughly as likely to be a loosening as a tightening"; while, conversely, for two members "there could well be a case for an increase in Bank Rate later in the year."

-Implicitly the remainder of the Committee is more inclined to think 2016 would be more suitable - and the probability of a 2015 hike is somewhat diminished in our view.

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