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Intraday bias - Bullish
USDCAD broke significant resistance at 1.32250 after a long consolidation and hits a 22-month high on board-based US dollar buying. US dollar index surged past 110 levels despite mixed US retail sales. . It rose 0.3% mom, above expectations of 0%. Core sales ex-auto dropped -0.3% mom vs estimate of 0%. US NY Fed empire state manufacturing index improved to -1.5 in Sep vs forecast of-12.70. It hits an intraday high of 1.32928 and is currently trading around 1.32873.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 75 bpbs rate hike in Sep rose to 76% from 75% a week ago.
Technically in the 4-Hour chart, the pair is holding above the short-term( 21- EMA), 55- EMA, and the long-term moving average of 200 EMA (1.30238). Any violation above 1.3300 confirms further bullishness. A jump to 1.3350/1.3435 is possible.
WTI crude oil lost more than $4 from yesterday's high of $89.28 on growth concerns. Any breach below $84 confirms further bearishness.
The near-term support is around 1.3220, and any breach below targets 1.3170-/1.3120/1.3070.
Indicators (4 Hour chart)
CCI (50)- Bullish
ADX- Bullish
It is good to buy on dips around 1.3220 with SL around 1.3170 for TP of 1.3435.
