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FxWirePro: USD/JPY breaks below 100-DMA, good to go short on rallies

  • USD/JPY has broken below major support by 100-DMA at 113.13, scope for downside builds. 
     
  • The pair is tracking DXY lower, amid holiday-thinned markets (Japan closed for Vernal Equinox Day) and lack of fresh fundamental drivers.
     
  • FOMC meeting last week which stressed gradualism in its tightening cycle.
     
  • The U.S. data calendar this week’s is thin with focus on new and existing home sales, and durable goods orders.
     
  • Technical studies are bearish, RSI and stochs are biased lower and MACD has shown a bearish crossover on signal line.
     
  • 112 levels in sight, violation there could see test of 111.60 and then 111 levels.
     
  • Fedspeak from Evans, George, Mester, Kashkari, Kaplan, Bullard and Yellen will be closely watched.

Support levels - 112, 111.68 (Feb 28 low), 111.35 (Nov 28, 2016 low), 111.07 (38.2% Fib retrace of 98.78 to 118.66 rise)

Resistance levels - 113.13 (100-DMA), 113.32 (5-DMA), 113.67 (cloud base)

TIME  TREND INDEX  OB/OS INDEX    

1H          Bearish               Oversold       
4H          Bearish               Oversold       
1D          Bearish               Neutral        
1W         Bearish               Neutral      

Recommendation: Good to go short on rallies around 112.60/70, SL: 113.20, TP: 111.70/ 111.35/ 111
 

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