FxWirePro: USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Chart - Courtesy Trading View 

Spot Analysis:

USD/JPY was trading 0.39% higher on the day at 139.80 at around 06:35 GMT.

Previous Week's High/ Low: 147.56/ 138.45

Previous Session's High/ Low: 140.62/ 137.65

Fundamental Overview:

Investors stay on a cautious footing amid rising geopolitical risks as concerns loom over missile attack on Poland.

Data released on Tuesday showed US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October eased to 8.0% YoY versus market forecasts of 8.3% and the downwardly revised prior of 8.4%. 

The monthly figure reprinted the 0.2% prior (revised from 0.4%) while easing below 0.5% expectations. 

Further, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 4.5 in November from -9.1 in October and the market expectation of -5.

Softer data stoke receding hawkish bets at the US central bank’s next move in December. Focus now on US Retail Sales for impetus.

US Retail Sales for October scheduled at 13:30 GMT later in the NY session are expected to rise to 1.0% versus 0.0% prior.

Technical Analysis:

- USD/JPY finds stiff resistance at 110-EMA

- Momentum is bearish, stochs and RSI are sharply lower

- Volatility is high and rising, MACD and ADX support downside in the pair

- GMMA indicator shows major trend is neutral, while minor trend is bearish

Major Support and Resistance Levels:

Support - 138.48 (Lower BB), Resistance - 140.09 (110-EMA)

Summary: USD/JPY has paused downside. Pullback from multi-year highs seems to be fizzling out. Retrace above 200H MA will see upside resumption. Sideways grind likely to continue till pairs shows decisive break above 110-EMA.