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Indian Rupee has broken to new one month low against Dollar and currently trading at 67.2 per Dollar. After several failed attempts to break resistance around 66 area, it has been showing weakness for past several trading days, but after yesterday’s minutes and clearest indication so far from FED that rate hike in June is real possibility, Dollar is not only well bid, emerging market economies suffering outflows, according to ETF data.
After early year turmoil, Indian Rupee and other assets benefited from inflows into emerging economies but data after minutes show, investors are withdrawing money from both bond and equity ETFs.
Moreover, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be maintaining its strategy to not to intervene in the market for directional basis but to curb volatility on both side. Moreover recent data shows, Whole sale prices rose for first time after 17 months, which would keep RBI from further rate reduction and boost bonds.
We expect, Indian Rupee once again move higher and test support around 68.5 per Dollar, since bears clearly defended 66.
