U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
Trump’s "Shock and Awe" Agenda: Executive Orders from Day One 
Fed Confirms Rate Meeting Schedule Despite Severe Winter Storm in Washington D.C. 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
BTC Flat at $89,300 Despite $1.02B ETF Exodus — Buy the Dip Toward $107K? 
Oil Prices Dip Slightly Amid Focus on Russian Sanctions and U.S. Inflation Data 
RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
Bank of Japan Signals Cautious Path Toward Further Rate Hikes Amid Yen Weakness 
Gold Prices Fall Amid Rate Jitters; Copper Steady as China Stimulus Eyed 
BOJ Rate Decision in Focus as Yen Weakness and Inflation Shape Market Outlook 
The indifference of FX markets to trade/geopolitical risks has also extended to the run of downward revisions in the global cyclical outlook over the past two months.
Despite the large fall in global PMIs, high-beta FX is if anything stronger, while forecast revisions have recently become a poor basis for systematic FX trading. We offer three reasons for this growth/FX breakdown:
1) The pullback in various cyclical indicators cannot yet be distinguished from mere payback of earlier over-exuberance at the turn of the year;
2) The data has yet to significantly impact central bank policy-speak, nor market pricing of policy;
3) The dispersion of surprises and revisions muddle, rather than signal clear cyclical out- and under-performers.
The implications are thus similar to those we’ve drawn from recent trade and geopolitical risk: it is concerning and worth monitoring but does not yet warrant a comprehensive rethink of forecast directionally, rank-order of performance, or medium-term strategy.
Strategy: Stay relatively light on risk, but add to CAD longs (vs USD), add long AUDJPY, and take profit on long NOKSEK.
Next two weeks: China economic data, ECB, BoJ, BoC, Riksbank, G3 flash PMI, 1Q GDP, and trade globally.
Currency Strength Index: Ahead of data announcements such as Philly Fed manufacturing index, US unemployment claims, and FOMC members’ speeches, FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is edging higher at 43 levels (bullish) while articulating (at 06:02 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex.
FxWirePro launches Absolute Return Managed Program. For more details, visit:
