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We’ve been consistently urging for hedging bearish risks of GBP against major pairs for long-term investors, but especially GBPUSD and GBPJPY pairs, rest everything is history by now.
As George soras told once, being right or wrong is not important. How much more money you made when you are right and how much less you lost when you are wrong is all that matters.
GBP against other majors, such as GBPJPY tumbled from day highs of 160.110 to the current 136.172 levels (or 14.95%), GBPAUD 1.9668 to the current 1.8275 levels (i.e. 7.08%), while GBPCAD dropped from 1.9125 to 1.7538 levels (8.29%). EUR gained massively against GBP from day lows of 0.7599 to the current 0.8165 levels (or 7.44%).
The current prices of GBPJPY have broken all major supports on monthly charts (including156.092, 147.268) and remained well below EMAs, both leading & lagging oscillators signal downtrend continuation.
Keeping today’s crazy plunge aside, the pair seemed extremely weaker and has already formed the double top pattern with top 1 at 162.815 and top 2 at 163.895.
Current prices have again broken neckline at 154.227 levels, remained well below DMAs.
Any attempts to bounce back should be deemed as a better shorting opportunity, but even if rallies continue we don’t think the prevailing price bounces would sustain above DMAs or major resistance to reach even major resistance at 154.227 levels.
Because momentum indicators (RSI & Stochastic oscillators) on both daily and monthly charts have been conducive to bearish rallies, after any abrupt bounces the bears may resume at any point in time.
Leading oscillators (RSI & stochastic) have been convincingly converging to the major downtrend.
Massive volumes build ups are in conformity to this declining trend.
While MACD has remained below zero level which is a bearish territory, and on monthly charts has just entered into the bearish trajectory.
To substantiate this major downtrend, MACD's bearish crossover, 21EMA crossover 7EMA and since the current prices on monthly charts have slid below EMAs that is still a sell signal.
We continue to maintain our bearish stances as the on-going downtrend to prevail further.
Hence, stay firm with longs on 2 lots of 1M At-The-Money vega puts that would function effectively in higher IV times or diagonal option strips using narrow expiries.
