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While UK inflation, employment, and retail sales dominate the data side of the calendar this week, the main focus is going to be on politics and central banks. The G20 meeting of finance ministers, in Buenos Aires, will be attended by Chancellor Hammond and BoE Governor Carney. The US tariffs and global trade are going to be a key focal point.
The two main events this week though are the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the BoE meeting Thursday. In regards to the former, the Fed is fully expected to raise rates by 25bps, but the focus will be on the message from the new Fed Chair Powell and whether they start to guide the markets towards four hikes this year. In regards to the BoE on Thursday, they are expected to leave rates unchanged, but the market is expecting to get a message that they will move rates in May by 25bps, which will leave open the door for a further hike later in the year (we believe they will move 25bps in May and 25bps in November).
The GBP is holding up pretty well into such a key week. Support is a little lower in the near-term around 1.3880, while resistance remains around 1.4000 regions. Momentum studies remain flat, providing little guidance. While over 1.3880, the risks are greater for a test through 1.40, opening a shift towards more important resistance in the 1.41-1.42 region. A decline through 1.3880 would risk a deeper setback to re-test 1.3825-1.3712 previous lows. Medium-term we remain in a correction after peaking around 1.4350, which still has the potential overall for a move back to the 1.3650-1.3450 region.
Hence, on trading grounds, it is good to buy cable for targets around 1.4094 levels with the strict loss at 1.4023 levels, thereby one could achieve reliable risk/reward ratio.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly GBP spot index is inching towards 123 levels (which is highly bullish). Hourly USD spot index was at shy above 24 (mildly bullish) while articulating (at 08:24 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
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