US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
Geopolitical Shocks That Could Reshape Financial Markets in 2025 
Bank of America Posts Strong Q4 2024 Results, Shares Rise 
Gold Prices Slide as Rate Cut Prospects Diminish; Copper Gains on China Stimulus Hopes 
BTC Flat at $89,300 Despite $1.02B ETF Exodus — Buy the Dip Toward $107K? 
US Gas Market Poised for Supercycle: Bernstein Analysts 
European Stocks Rally on Chinese Growth and Mining Merger Speculation 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Moldova Criticizes Russia Amid Transdniestria Energy Crisis 
The headwinds we highlighted last week for EM FX remain; negative EM political news flow is high, US tax reform discussions continue to provide upside USD risk, and EM FX positioning remains crowded even though outflows are picking up. As such, we add to our bearish stance and move underweight TRY, leaving us underweight in EMEA EM FX overall.
We encourage UW in the JPM’s GBI-EM Model Portfolio with an UW in ZAR and TRY vs. OW in RUB, and OW in PLN and CZK hedged against UW in RON. We also buy a 2m 4.10 USDTRY call option in outright trades.
Outright trades:
08-Jan-18 USDTRY call (4.10), spot reference: 3.8856
Short ZAR vs basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD)
Short EURCZK spot reference: 25.55
Long ILS vs. basket (0.5 EUR, 0.5 USD) spot reference: 4.1460 (EURILS), 3.5101 (USDILS)
01-Mar-18 EURHUF downside seagull (Long put spread (304, 297), short call (312)), spot reference: 311.720.
