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The pound sterling is trapped in a fight between the bulls and the bears. While the bears are trying to push the exchange rate lower in anticipation of weakness in the economy in the aftermath of the June referendum. The economic shock to the UK could be large if the non-binding referendum finally leads to an exit from the European Union. However, as of now, it seems that this process would be a very long and complicated one. According to the latest commentaries, the UK government would not trigger the Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which is the first step to begin exit negotiations, until April next year.
On the other hand, bulls are finding support in better than economic outcomes. UK’s economic surprise index has hit a three-year high. They are also finding support in the weakness of the dollar.
The bulls are looking to push the sterling towards 1.38 area, for then resistances at 1.327 and 1.338 remain crucial and a must break to achieve the target. For the bears, a push below 1.285 is a must, to reach their target around 1.22 area.
