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Credit rating agency Standard & Poor has affirmed South Korea’s AA rating despite ongoing tensions between the United States and North Korea and despite the fact that in an all-out war, South Korea stands to lose most as the capital Seoul is within the strike range of North Korea’s artillery. Though the rating agency acknowledged that the risk has grown, it has kept the outlook stable.
With regard to tensions in the Korean Peninsula, the rating agency said, “After ratcheting up tensions with little to show for it, the [North Korean] regime could underestimate the risks of a more dramatic provocation in the hope of winning some concessions. On the other side, the U.S. may be less patient in responding to North Korean provocations than before, now that it views the country as being close to achieving inter-continental nuclear strike capability. In this situation, a miscalculation by either side of this standoff could spark a direct military conflict.”
However adds, “Our ratings on Korea reflect the country’s favorable policy environment, sound fiscal position, and net external creditor position. We believe Korea’s high-income economy continues to demonstrate stronger growth prospects than most developed countries’. Significant security risks and contingent fiscal liabilities partly offset these strengths.”
We would like to add, while South Korea has most to lose in an all-out war or direct conflict with North Korea, the country has also most to gain if a peace agreement could be reached. Technically speaking, North Korea remains at war with both South Korea and the United States since Korean War in the 1950s as no peace agreement was signed.
