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FxWirePro: NZD/USD struggles at 20-DMA, focus on GDT dairy auction for further impetus

  • Kiwi subdued on the day ahead of GDT dairy auction and RBNZ  (due Wednesday).
     
  • Technical studies support upside, but the pair is struggling to extend gains above 20-DMA at 0.7045.
     
  • Break above 20-DMA could see test of 100-DMA at 0.7111.
     
  • But on the flipside, close below 5-DMA could drag the pair to test 0.6916 (50% Fib of 0.6347 to 0.7485 rally).
     
  • Data released earlier today showed NZ visitor arrivals m/m at 1.9%, while net migration arrived 6000 vs the previous 6,500.
     
  • Focus on GDT dairy auction later today, which is priced by futures to show a WMP price fall of 5%, potentially weighing heavily on the bird.
     
  • Expectations are for the RBNZ to stay pat, but there’s a risk of a slight dovish shift in tone due to weaker dairy prices, subdued housing, and slower economic growth.
     
  • NZIER shadow board stated that the RBNZ should maintain interest rates at 1.75% with a tightening bias.

Support levels - 0.7028 (5-DMA), 0.6975 (Mar 17 low), 0.6916 (50% Fib of 0.6347 to 0.7485 rally).

Resistance levels - 0.7045 (20-DMA), 0.7075 (38.2% Fib retrace of 0.7375 to 0.6890 fall), 0.7110 (100-DMA).

TIME  TREND INDEX  OB/OS INDEX    

1H          Neutral               Neutral       
4H          Neutral               Neutral       
1D          Bullish                Neutral        
1W         Neutral                Neutral      

Recommendation: Good to go long on breakout above 20-DMA at 0.7045, SL: 0.70, TP: 0.7080/ 0.71/ 0.7150

FxWirePro Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Spot Index was at 97.4315(Bullish), while Hourly USD Spot Index was at -87.3146(Bearish) at 0440 GMT. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex
 

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