FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Price actions in gold, has called for another analysis from FxWirePro. In previous analysis we pointed out US investment bank Goldman Sachs has called for $1000/troy ounce by year end, as they are betting on stronger US Dollar and several hikes from US Federal Reserve.
We, on the other hand from the beginning wasn't that hawkish on rates, expected one or two hikes and decision over FED's large balance sheet along with reinvestment policy. Looking at this point and hearing out FED chair Yellen it seems not only Goldman but we will also be proven wrong on the rate front. Market as of now is pricing no hikes in 2016 and probabilities for rate cut is moving up.
In gold, both of our calls are reached. One targeting $1140 area and another $1230 area.
However, this post is not to boast but to alert.
Gold is on the verge of breaking a very key technical pattern, downward sloping trend channel, which has been in place since April, 2013. While a break would be excellent bullish opportunity, bears could take control in case of false breakout.
While it is nice to see that Gold is finding support in risk aversion, it is also important to note that it is not as spectacular as Yen.
So, it is best to remain cautious and wait for the opportune moment to take positions.
Regarding the Goldman call -
According to our calculations there still exists a possibility that Gold might drop lower and that might happen without stronger Dollar, due to many cases, sever demand slump in China or rally in equities. As of now, what fundamental would play out is difficult to gauge as of now.
Like Goldman, have a time frame for it...one year, we don't have that but a stop loss area. This possibility will become invalid, once Gold crosses above $1320-1340 zone.
