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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1909.96
Kijun-Sen- $1929.37
Gold showed a minor pullback after weak US Non-Farm payroll data. It hit a high of $2004.13 yesterday and is currently trading around $1985.
The US economy has added 150000 jobs in Oct compared to a forecast of 180000. Unemployment jumped to 3.9% vs. a Forecast of 3.8%.
The number of people who have claimed unemployment benefits rose by 5000 last week to 217000, compared to a forecast of 21000. US CB consumer confidence declined to 102.60 in Oct, compared to a forecast of 100.50. Chicago PMI dropped to 44vs. 45 forecast.US ISM manufacturing PMI declined to 46.70 in Oct, compared to a forecast of 49. Private sector payroll surged 113000 in Oct vs. Estimate of 149000.
Fed monetary policy-
FOMC has kept its rates unchanged at 5.50% as expected. It has maintained the current pace of QT. The central bank said that inflation is elevated and has kept doors open to hike rates depending on economic developments.
Major Economic data for the week
Nov 8th, 2023, Fed Chair Powell Speaks (2:15 pm GMT)
Nov 10 th 2023, Prelim UoM consumer sentiment (3:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 105/104.50. The near-term resistance is 107.50/109.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 90.2% from 79.10% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield declined more than 7% the previous week in hopes of a rate pause this year. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -27 from -22%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1975, a break below targets of $1960/$1950/$1926. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2010 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2020/$2048.
It is good to buy on dips around $1970-72 with SL around $1960 for TP of $2000/$2020.
