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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1928.67
Kijun-Sen- $1983.18
Gold trading in a narrow range between $1947 and $1901.04 for the past two weeks. It is currently trading at around $1923.55.
The yellow metal showed a sell-off after the hawkish fed rate pause. BOE and the Swiss National Bank kept their rates unchanged.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits decreased by 200000 in the week ended Sep 16 to 201K, compared to a forecast of 224K. The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to -13.50 in Sep, below the forecast of -0.70. US S&P global flash manufacturing PMI rose to 48.9, the highest level in 2 months in Sep.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 104.40/103.79. The near-term resistance is 106/107.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Nov increased to 77.10% from 72.30% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield declined slightly despite upbeat US economic data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -65% from -75%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bearish (positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1920, a break below targets of $1880/$1870/$1850. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1930 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1950/$1970.
It is good to buy on dips around $1918-20 with SL around $1900 for TP of $1950/$1960.
