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Ichimoku Analysis (Weekly chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1936.21
Kijun-Sen- $1943.11
Gold showed a minor pullback after hitting a multi-week low. It hit a high of $1922.42 and is currently trading around $1915.93.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits the week ending Aug 19 declined to 23000 compared to a forecast of 239000. US durable goods orders fell 5.2% in July vs. -4 expected. S&P manufacturing PMI declined to 47 in August, compared to a forecast of 48.90. The services PMI showed a minor drop to 51 vs. an estimate of 52.10.
Jackson Hole symposium- Fed Chairman Powell stated in a cautious tone that the Fed Reserve may need to raise rates to tackle inflation.
Major economic data for the Week
Aug 29th, 2023, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (1:00 pm GMT)
CB Consumer Confidence (2:00 pm GMT)
Aug 30 2023, German Prelim CPI m/m (All day)
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (12:15 pm GMT)
Prelim GDP q/q (12:30 pm)
Aug 31st, 2023, Core PCE index m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment claims (12:30 pm GMT)
Sep 1st, 2023, US Non-farm employment change (12:30 pm GMT)
US ISM manufacturing PMI (2:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 103/102. The near-term resistance is 105/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep decreased to 80.50% from 89% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield showed a minor sell-off on less hawkish comments from Fed chairman Powell. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -84% from -66%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1885, a break below targets of $1847/$1820. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1920 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $942/$1950/$1970.
It is good to buy on dips around $1905-06 with SL around $1890 for TP of $1950/$1970.
