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Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1962.43
Kijun-Sen- $1961.88
Gold showed a nice pullback amid the weak US dollar. It hits a high of $1972 and is currently trading around $1960.96.
According to a flash estimate for Eurostat, Eurozone inflation declined to 5.3% in Jul, in line with the estimate. Core CPI surged to 5.5% vs a forecast of 5.4%. Chicago PMI jumped slightly to 42.8 in Jul, below the estimate of 43.
Major economic data for the day
Aug 1st, 2023, US ISM manufacturing PMI (2:00 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 100.60/99.50. The near-term resistance is 102.20/103.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 82.50% from 81.60% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat ahead of the US ISM manufacturing PMI. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -90.30 from -110%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (bearish for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1950, a break below targets of $1940/ $1930/$1920. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1975 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1987/ $2000/$2020.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1970-72 with SL around $1985 for TP of $1900.
