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Ichimoku Analysis (4- Hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1966.91
Kijun-Sen- $1965.14
Gold prices gained more than $30 after weak US retail sales. It rose 0.20% last month, below the forecast of 0.40%. Retail sales ex-autos came at 0.20% vs an estimate of 0.30%. It hits a high of $1984 and currently trading around $1975.75.
Major economic data for the day
Jul 19th, 2023, US Building permits (12:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- weak. Minor support around 99.50/98. The near-term resistance is 100.20/101.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 99.80% from 93% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield is trading weak amid weak US retail sales. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -97% from -110%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (Positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1950, a break below targets of $1945/1930. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000.
It is good to buy on dips around $1960 with SL around $1950 for TP of $1990/$2000.
