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Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1946.70
Kijun-Sen- $1953.10
Gold prices lost their shine after US Fed monetary policy. Fed kept its rates unchanged at 5-5.25%. The central bank has projected the median federal funds rate from 5.1% to 5.6% (three more 25 bpbs rate hikes in 2023). For 2024 it increased from 4.3% to 4.6%. It hits a low of $1940 and is currently trading around $1949.04.
US dollar index- Neutral. Minor support around 103/102.70. The near-term resistance is 103.85/104.40.
Major economic data for the week
Jun 15th, ECB monetary policy (12:15 PM GMT)
US Core retail sales m/m and Empire State Manufacturing Index (12:30 PM GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate hike in July increased to 71.9% from 50.9% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield gained more than 4% after the Fed policy. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -91.7% from -35%.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Mixed (neutral for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (Bearish for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1935, a break below targets of $1920/$1900.The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1965, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1980/$2000/$2020/$2040/$2070/$2100/$2150.
It is good to sell on rallies around $1955-57 with SL around $1970 for TP of $1920/$1900.
