Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $1817.98
Kijun-Sen- $1819.30
Gold prices rebounded sharply despite the strong US dollar. The yellow metal was one of the worst performers the previous month in hopes of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed. The US dollar index pared some of its gains after weak US economic data was released yesterday. Gold hits an intraday high of $1831.50 and is currently trading around $1831.71.
The conference board consumer confidence declined for a second consecutive month in Feb to 102.90 vs. the forecast of 108.50 US Richmond manufacturing index decreased to -16 in Feb, below the forecast of -5.
Major economic data for this week
US ISM manufacturing PMI
US dollar index-Bullish. Minor support around 104.35/103.70. The near-term resistance is 105.35/106.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar declined to 23.30% from 24% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trades flat after a minor pullback. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -89.7 basis points from -77% bpbs.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- bearish (Positive for gold)
US dollar index - Bullish (Negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $1800, a break below targets of $1788/$1748. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $1835, and a breach above will take it to the next level of $1854/$1860.
It is good to buy on dips around $1815-16 with SL around $1800 for TP of $1860.
